Immediate fossil fuel phase can halt climate change: the new study showed 64% chance of staying below 1.5C if all fossil fuel infrastructure life was changed by zero carbon
Unfortunately, global warming has a very bad impact on us. The first of these is the global water resources.
Recommended article: Unfortunately: Global water resources are shrinking due to climate change
According to the survey, climate change can be controlled in order to find an alternative to all fossil fuel infrastructure.
There is internationally accepted research to keep global warming below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Scientists say, therefore, that there are elections made by the global community rather than physics to fulfill the goal.
The study found that the fossil fuel infrastructure - power plants, factories, vehicles, ships and airplanes - is now at 64% at the end of their lifespan, replacing them with zero carbon alternatives.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated in October that the difference between 1.5C warming and the previous international goal of 2C was much lower for hundreds of millions of people in terms of drought, flood, heat wave and poverty.
Christopher Smith, of the University of Leeds, who led the research, said: “It’s good news from a geophysical point of view. But on the other side of the coin, the [immediate fossil fuel phaseout] is really at the limit of what we could we possibly do. We are basically saying we can’t build anything now that emits fossil fuels.”
Nicholas Stern, of the London School of Economics, who was not part of the research team, said: “We are rapidly approaching the end of the age of fossil fuels. This study confirms that all new energy infrastructure must be sustainable from now on if we are to avoid locking in commitments to emissions that would lead to the world exceeding the goals of the Paris agreement.”
In a study published in Nature Communications, computer models were used to predict how much global temperatures would increase if a fossil fuel infrastructure phase began immediately. The life of the power plants is 40 years. The study also puts a rapid end to the consumption of beef and milk, which are responsible for significant global emissions.
In this scenario, the models show that carbon emissions will drop to zero in the next four to ten years and 66% of global temperature increase below 1.5C. If the phase output does not start until 2030, the chance is 33%.
The analysis does not include the possibility of the tipping of the huge volume of methane from the permafrost, which may cause global warming.
Scientists acknowledge that their scenarios are at the very end of the passion, but it is important to know that reaching the 1.5C goal is still physically possible and that it depends on the choices made now and in the coming years. “Maybe the solution here is flying less,” Smith said.
Other studies using a different approach have shown that it is possible to remain within the 1.5C limit immediately if radical action is taken. In some sectors, zero carbon technology such as renewable energy is already available. But there are no others like aviation. ”Perhaps the solution here is less flying, Smith Smith said.
Prof Dave Reay of Edinburgh University, who was not part of the research team, said: “Whether it’s drilling a new gas well, keeping an old coal power station open, or even buying a diesel car, the choices we make today will largely determine the climate pathways of tomorrow. The message of this new study is loud and clear: act now or see the last chance for a safer climate future ebb away.”
Smith’s personal belief is that global warming will surpass 1.5C. “We are going the right way, but I don’t think we will do enough, quickly enough. I think we are heading for 2C to 2.5C.”
And he added: “If you don’t have a goal, you are not going to get anywhere. If you have a target that is really hard to achieve and you miss it slightly, that is better than wandering aimlessly into a future climate that is no good for anybody.”